Saturday, February 26, 2011

VD's Final Oscar Winners Predictions

LIKE IT OR NOT, we're here once again. There's still about 24 hours till showtime, and I couldn't put this off wait any longer. These aren't really going to change or anything; my thoughts are pretty cemented. I think it's a pretty good year overall, and I somehow managed to love the vast majority of the BP nominees, which impresses me. Shut up.

As is customary, I don't even try to do the short categories, so here are my predictions for the other twenty-one categories! YAAAAAAAAAAAAY.

Updated with Winners
14/21 - 66% correct
(I haven't done this badly since 2007's 12/21 score.)

Best Picture
Will Win: The King's Speech
Could Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Black Swan

It would be a rather beautiful miracle if TSN grabbed it back, but of course that's not gonna happen so, everyone, just live with it.

Best Director
Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Could Win: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Should Win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

The British biggies are always weaker with this, so Fincher really SHOULD PROBABLY WIN IT.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Could Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Could Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan


Yay redundancy!

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Could Win: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Should Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter

To be honest I don't see Rush winning even if TKS won LITERALLY everything else. Bale is just too goddamn strong.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Could Win: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Should Win: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

If Steinfeld wins this, I will fuck a girl, I swear to god. NOT HAPPENING.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: David Seidler, The King's Speech
Could Win: Christopher Nolan, Inception
Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Inception

British BPs, even if they lose Director, nearly always win for their writing. AMPAS don't care 'bout Chris Nolan anyway.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Could Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Should Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network


Sorkin losing this would be the single most scandalous snub in QUITE a while, considering he's won everything and undeniably deserves it.

Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Toy Story 3
Could Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: Toy Story 3


*yawns*

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: In a Better World
Could Win: Incendies
Should Win: n/a

Outside the Law seems like it COULD be the Departures/Secrets of the year, but without a heavily known frontrunner or two for it to beat (Biutiful doesn't count - though it does tonally), I'm not sure treating it like that would work. Not a great theoretical year.

Best Documentary Feature Film
Will Win: Inside Job
Could Win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Should Win: n/a

I don't care if I'm being too obvious; I also don't really care.

Best Art Direction
Will Win: Eve Stewart, The King's Speech
Could Win: Guy Hendrix Dyas, Inception
Should Win: Guy Hendrix Dyas, Inception
Actually Won: Robert Stromberg, Alice in Wonderland

I really wish the gay porn thing came out sooner, but it's not an undeserved win. Inception is so much FUNNER though.

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Could Win: Wally Pfister, Inception
Should Win: Matthew Libatique, Black Swan

God help us if Deakins doesn't win. But I REALLY don't think he'll lose to TKS? That would be way too indulgent a win. Inception, backed with incredible work by a DP that THEY WON'T STOP NOMINATING, is more likely to steal it.

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Colleen Atwood, Alice in Wonderland
Could Win: Jenny Beavan, The King's Speech
Should Win: Mary Zophres, True Grit

Nathaniel's touting of the 'Atwood and Sandy Powell only win when the other is nominated' formula rings too true, tbh. It made a billion dollars, and she's AT LEAST never won for a Burton film. TKS isn't flashy or colorful or corset-y.

Best Film Editing
Will Win: Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter, The Social Network
Could Win: Tariq Anwar, The King's Speech
Should Win: Andrew Weisblum, Black Swan

I actually trust TSN winning this. But who knows.

Best Original Score
Will Win: Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
Could Win: Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Should Win: Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, The Social Network


This would be one of the easier things for TKS to pick up in the event of a sweep; Desplat's overdue (but for this?). I hope Reznor/Ross can sneak this, though. That would be fucking amazing.

Best Original Song
Will Win: "If I Rise", 127 Hours
Could Win: "I See the Light", Tangled
Should Win: "I See the Light", Tangled
Actually Won: "We Belong Together, Toy Story 3

I REALLY HAVE NO CLUE. This is the lamest thing ever.

Best Make-Up
Will Win: The Way Back
Could Win: Barney's Version
Should Win: n/a
Actually Won: The Wolfman

Sorry, THIS is the lamest thing ever.

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: True Grit
Could Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception


I'm going with TG since it won the CAS. IDK.

Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Inception
Could Win: True Grit
Should Win: Inception

I guess.

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Inception
Could Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception


Well this is a bit blatant, innit. Plus, it's been forty years since a Best Picture nominee nominated for its special effects has lost to a non-nominee. In case it qasn't clear enough that it's not gonna lose.

So, everyone's thoughts? Blah blah.

2 comments:

Dave said...

I enjoy how you've stuck Tom Hardy in your banner.

So you're not buying the possibility of a Bening steal that some are floating? Not that I disagree. Portman's pregnant grip is too strong.

I hope you aren't intending the girl you fuck if Steinfeld wins to be Steinfeld. She doesn't deserve that. Of course, she wouldn't deserve the Oscar either, so I suppose it would be fitting.

The Way Back totally deserves Make-Up, so it is NOT the lamest thing ever. Song is though. Oh dear lord. (Dido winning an Oscar would be amazing. Even if she's not there. Why is she not there? Silly Florence.)

Oh, and you SHOULD care about Documentary, you unintellectual. (I'm going to watch as many as I can tomorrow. Fun day. Especially since I've already seen the cheerful one.)

J.D. said...

Yes. Mm. (THANK YOU for commenting on the banner btw.)

If Bening had been WINNING anything major besides the comedy Globe (which doesn't matter in a dramatically-ruled world) at any point this year, I suppose an upset would be possible. But alas.

Wait, are you saying Steinfeld doesn't deserve to be fucked by me, or rather that she doesn't deserve the ordeal of being fucked by me? WHAT THE HELL DOES THAT MEAN, DAVID. (She'd deserve an Oscar, but not a Supporting Oscar, FOR THE REC.)

Make-Up just frustrates me because of how random the nominees are, all of them unseen! Because I care. Also, I actually like two of the song nominees (aka the two I've noted, especially "If I Rise"). I CANNOT WAIT FOR FLORENCE TO OVERSING THE HELL OUT OF IT THOUGH!

I've been so lax with docs lately, it IS shameful. I'm sure I'd care if I had actually seen any of them. /disrespectful (*smacks you for calling me an unintellectual*)